On opinion polls and the press

In case I haven't mentioned it enough, I hate polls. Actually, it's not so much that I hate polls as I hate how the press uses polls.

Much of the news media, such as it is, loves polls because it gives them an excuse to not have to do real journalism. They can just yammer on for hours about these mythical numbers and pass it off as "analysis." It's much easier than getting fingernails dirty on something less sexy but actually meaningful, like the lack of access to health care by millions of Americans.

Let's say a poll blares that "45% of Americans prefer President Bush, 44% prefer Sen. Kerry and 9% prefer Ralph Nader."

First off, it won't be the poll that blares these numbers, it will be a newspaper or TV headline. Because statisticians will know better. Statisticians know about variation and sample size. They know that polling is an art, not a science.

It will be a print or TV headline because those media are notorious for squeezing the nuance out of everything.

Second, the headline is probably flat out wrong. It's not 45% of Americans or even of all voters who prefer President Bush. It's 45% of those polled in that particular survey in that particular period who prefer the president; that is the demonstrable fact.

If that poll surveyed 1000 people, then all it means is that the poll shows that 450 individuals prefered Bush at the time of the survey, 440 prefered Kerry and 90 preferred Nader.

If this were just a few yapping heads on MSNBC, we could ignore it. But the entire media spends an inordinate amount of time "analyzing" polls instead of doing real news.

Not only should there be fewer stories about polls, but stories about polls should never be on the front page of a newspaper. They should never be the lead story on a news program. For one simple reason: they are not news.

Journalists like to put their hand over their heart and say, "We don't make news, we just report it."

The increasing domination of polls in the so-called news business puts lie to this claim. Newspapers and networks commission polls so they have stories to report. In essence, they ARE inventing the news.

Also see my essay: 530 people support Kerry