What is Israel accomplishing?

The Israeli rape of southern Lebanon and Hezbollah's use of human shields continues to aggravate a grave humanitarian crisis, one exacerbated by a growing fuel shortage which is threatening hospitals. A shortage due to an Israeli blockade of Lebanon's ports.

Israel faced a real security threat, but its grotesque overreaction has only harmed its security both in short term (as evidenced by the Israelis hunkered down in bomb shelters) and in long term (as the war's excesses gives further ammunition to terrorist recruiters). Israel had two soldiers captured by Hezbollah and has responded by laying waste to all of southern Lebanon and parts of its capital. Israel's actions are akin to someone being kicked in the shin and responding by beating that person within an inch of their life.

Some of Israel's defenders ask what would the US do if Mexico had kidnapped American soldiers? Let's look at the closest historical parallel: the 1916 expedition of Gen. John Pershing into Mexico. The Mexican Pancho Villa had been launching raids into the southern United States and killed several people. Pres. Woodrow Wilson ordered Pershing and 12,000 US troops into Mexico to capture Villa. The expedition is notable for what did not happen. The US did not impose a naval blocked on Mexican ports. It did not bomb roads or train lines. It did not destroy entire villages simply because it suspected a single Villaista was hidden there It did not lay waste to all territory between the Rio Grande and Mexico City.

We know what Israel says it's trying to accomplish: the elimination of Hezbollah's threat to the Jewish state. But how do its current actions advance that goal? It seems that in its haste, the Israeli government has gotten itself into something that it has no idea how it's going to get out of. It seems that Israel has put itself in a corner where its only options are bad ones: continue to fight an aimless, counterproductive war that jeopardizes short and long term security (a la Iraq) or withdraw and be accused by some of handing a moral victory to the terrorists.

The Toronto Star noted that some 60 percent of Lebanon's hospitals are expected to shut down within a week if the fuel crisis is not alleviated. Contrary to Israel's self-delusions, the Lebanese are not going to blame Hezbollah for this. They are not going to blame Hezbollah because Israel's bombers have attacked the country's electrical grid and the power supply is faltering, leaving hospitals to rely on generators for several hours every day. Or at least they're not going to blame Hezbollah alone.

"The number of children that have died well exceeds the number of militants and combatants," noted the UN's humanitarian coordinator David Shearer, who add that "the targeting of civilians and essential social infrastructure [airports, power plants, bridges] is a violation of international law."

This begs the question: what is Israel accomplishing? For a moment, let's remove this completely from any moral context and look at it solely from the purpose of Israeli self-interest.

Around 1000 Lebanese have died during the war (along with 3700 injuries and almost a million internally displaced people). Shearer estimates tha about 90 percent of casualties have been civilian, a figure that jives with most 'modern' wars. So doing the math, one can infer that Israel has killed about 100 Hezbollah fighters.

The Lebanese painstakingly rebuilt their infrastructure over the course of a decade following a long civil war and now it's been ruined in a few weeks. A quarter of Lebanon's population has had to flee violence. They no longer have access to the basic necessities of life. The Jewish state's most moderate, democratic and cosmopolitan neighbor is now in chaos thanks to Israel and its government seriously destabilized. Do you think the Lebanese resent Israel for it? Do you think this will dampen or inflame anti-Israel sentiment in Lebanon? Do the moderates in Lebanon's politics stand any chance in the near future? Do you think that terrorist recruiters are thanking the heavens for Israel's actions? All this for a few dozen dead Hezbollah.

Is it worth it?