Thursday, August 14, 2008

Top 'diplomat' admits Russia's true expansionist intentions in Georgia

Russia's original position when it launched its aggression against Georgia was that it was merely bitchslapping an insolent little child as 'punishment.' It claimed that once the child cowered into proper obedience to its master, Russia would stop its 'defensive' action.

Perhaps realizing that its actions have revealed its words as lies, especially after basically ignoring the 'cease fire' they agreed, Russia has finally admitted what was its true desire from well before the invasion: annexing Georgian territory.

Russia's foreign minister told the press that the world "can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity" because it has unilaterally decided that South Ossetia and Abkhazia don't want to remain part of Georgia.

If this is really the case, then Russia would surely have no problem letting its occupation force be replaced by UN peacekeepers while the international body conducted a referendum so that South Ossetians and Abkhazians could decide their own futures rather than being dictated to by Moscow. (wink/nod)

Can you imagine the international outrage if under Saddam's rule, the US snapped its fingers and unilaterally declared that Iraqi Kurdistan would henceforth be an American commonwealth like Puerto Rico?

Some have asked why I'm giving Georgia's President Sakashvili a free pass. That's not true. I've stated several times that the military action in South Ossetia was reckless stupidity of monstrous proportions. I read yesterday that US Sec. of State Rice said she warned Sakashvili several months ago not to provoke Russia.

But it's true I've criticized him far less than Russia's de facto leader Prime Minister Putin. And the simple fact is that Sakashvili's sin of grotesque stupidity is far less grave both in moral terms and geopolitical implications than Putin's sin of aggressive imperialism. I view Russia's actions as a) far more dangerous to international stability and b) at best debatable in fact and totally out of control in scale. Both countries are wrong but I'm not going to pull a moral equivalency here. I'm far more critical of Russia because I believe they are far more wrong.

If there's compelling evidence from an objective source that Sakashvili is implicated in war crimes, then by all means he should be indicted. However, that 'objective' source can not be any Russian government official, especially Vladimir Putin crying 'genocide'... the same Putin who himself should've have been put up on war crimes and crimes against humanity charges years ago for Chechnya.

I understand Russia's fear of being 'surrounded' (at least on the west) by NATO countries. But on the other hand, I also understand the desire of most European former Soviet states to gain the protection of NATO membership.

It started with things like Russia meddling in Ukraine's domestic politics and poisoning the then-opposition leader; the man is now Ukraine's president and, not shockingly, isn't buddy-buddy with Putin. It continued with things like Russia's apparent cyberattack on Estonia. It's escalated with Russia cutting off energy supplies to former satellites for being pro-western, such as Poland and Ukraine. And it's reached its peak with Russia's aggression against Georgia. Well, let's hope it's the peak.

Let's not forget that places like Poland spent 45 years under Russian domination.

Let's also not forget that places like Georgia and Ukraine spent most of the 20th century as conquered lands under the formal subjugation of the Russian empire after being conquered.

So if these countries are mistrustful of Russia's true intentions, I'd say they have pretty darn good reason. The invasion of Georgia followed by Russia's now explicit desire to annex* parts of this small country only illustrates this wisdom of this mistrust.

(*-Excuse me, I mean re-annex)

Regime change is also widely believed to be a main objective of the invasion. Russia has declared it won't talk to the Georgian government until Sakashvili reigns. Reports suggest that Russian tanks continue to advance into Georgia, well beyond the zone of conflict, despite the cease fire Russia agreed to.

Russia has spent most of this decade destabilizing South Ossetia and enabling the criminal gangs there with close links to elements in the Kremlin. They'd fabricated an excuse to meddle in South Ossetia by giving passports to every Tom, Dick and Harry in the land. They'd whipped up anti-Georgian sentiment not only in South Ossetia but in Russia itself. All these factors were carefully planned pretexts to an invasion and annexation they obviously wanted for a long time... as evidenced by the statement of Russia's foreign minister.

What exactly was Georgia supposed to do in the face of all these years of provocation and destabilization of its territory?

Bear in mind, this is a country that twice in the last two centuries has been conquered and annexed by imperial Russia.

And it's a country that, we know now, Russia has designs on it yet again.

It seems Russia was always going to annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia one way or another. They seemed content on doing it slowly but had obviously prepared to do it quickly. Sakashvili's decision gave them a chance to fast track the process. But it was something that looked like was going to happen either way, regardless of what Sakashvili did.

International opinion seems clear on what Georgia should NOT have done, but what exactly WERE they supposed to do?

When Libya sent arms to the IRA in the 1980s, Britain was furious. Arming secessionists is only one aspect of Russia's destabilization campaign in South Ossetia.

When French President de Gaulle went to Montreal in 1967 and stoked Quebec nationalism, Canada was livid. The mass outrage was provoked by three little words: 'Vive le Québec libre.' This is less than peanuts compared to what Russia was doing in South Ossetia even before the invasion.

But when Russia does far worse to destabilize South Ossetia (before the full scale invasion), Georgia is supposed to say nothing, do nothing and hope their behemoth neighbor with a repeated history of conquering it might decide to play nice?

Again, critics make it clear what Georgia should not have 'provoked' Russia by trying to re-assert control over its territory, but what exactly should they have done?

I hate to say it but some countries are going to look at this and conclude, "If Georgia had nuclear weapons, they wouldn't have been invaded."

Then, some countries have looked at the invasion of Iraq and the non-invasion of North Korea and concluded the same thing.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

"I understand Russia's fear of being 'surrounded' (at least on the west) by NATO countries. But on the other hand, I also understand the desire of most European former Soviet states to gain the protection of NATO membership."
Brian, you have always had my respect, and this entry, and particularly this snippet, reaffirms my respect.
I have seen commentators from both the left and right, pro and anti Saakashvili, in recent days say that the expansion of NATO would make Russia suspicious. I agree, you agree, and those other writers agree. It's certainly not a zero-sum game, it has repercussions. However, you are the first writer/blogger I have seen out there to take that initial thought to the logical next step: *Why* are these countries eager to join NATO? It's actually a rather difficult process, requiring a series of benchmarks for reforms not just of the military, but political ones as well. It's not like filling out a form for a library card. Eastern Europeans are accepting NATO because they see a chance to do something they have wanted for a while: steer clear of a larger neighbor to the East with a rather poor reputation when it comes to playing nice.
Why more writers don't see that is a shame. They see the West, they see Russia, but they don't *really* see the Eastern European perspective.
Thank you!

Brian said...

Mark,
I'm not an expert on the former Soviet empire like yourself but I was at least mildly familiar with the conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia before the aggression, as well as Russia's activities in its other former colonies. I knew where Georgia was without looking at a map. The truth is that most observers in this country, even informed ones, know next to nothing about Eastern Europe and the Caucusus.

Most US commentators on this crisis are looking at it through the lens of their own domestic US ideological biases. Speaking broadly here of course... the right views it through the lens of Bush's 'freedom' (wink/nod) agenda. The left assumes that because Bush strongly backs Sakashvili then Georgia must be wrong... or at least there's some moral equivalency between the two countries. There's also this undertone that because of Iraq, Bush has no moral credibility in condemning Russian aggression, which is of course true. It does not, however, follow that this justifies Russian belligerence or invalidates the concerns of Georgia. There's almost a leftist undertone that, while always given a token criticism of Russia, Georgia somehow deserved it for counting on Bush. This guilt-by-association is disgraceful.

The simple fact is that neither side, amongst US commentators, seems to see things from the Georgian (or even Russian) perspective... nor do they care to before making these authoritative declarations absent any historical context. It's notable that there's a tremendous sympathy for the Georgians in most of the other former Russian colonies... because they know they could be next.